IS A VOTE FOR NZPP REALLY A VOTE FOR WINSTON??
How less than 2000 votes could decide the coming general election.
Current poling on Northland, which has NZ First trailing in third place, are misleading. Because the precise electoral poles are not broken down. And yet if seats like Te Tai Tokerau (an electoral seat where margins of voter for the required winner are only a couple of thousand votes difference) are considered and you throw in looming job losses with possible Marsden refinery closures your looking at a game changer. One that MSM are misreading or more precisely not calculating.
The Māori electorates, remains at seven, but some boundary changes have been made. Namely Tāmaki Makaurau has gained an area around Te Atatū South from Te Tai Tokerau. The incumbents are planting their flag there in an attempt to play wild card politics.
Former National MP Jami-Lee Ross of minority party Advance, who only met registration needs this weekend, is pinning his hopes on his party winning the seat of Te Tai Tokerau as he looks to re-enter Parliament after the 2020 election.
Ross parted ways with National after an explosive 2018 scandal over party donations, a case that is currently before the courts. He formed Advance New Zealand at the 2020 election. He joined forces with another controversial minor party, Billy Te Kahika’s New Zealand Public Party (NZPP). Te Kahika is to contest the Māori electorate of Te Tai Tokerau and take the first list ranking on the merged party’s list. He will be co-leader of the party with Ross.
The seat is currently held by Labour deputy leader Kelvin Davis, who has a 4,800 vote majority over the lower socio economic vote choice of Mana Party’s Hone Harawira, who will not be campaigning in 2020. Harawira has swung his support behind the Māori party. Mariameno Kapa-Kingi will run in the seat for the Māori party. A party who lost mana with Northland voters after joining forces with National under John Key.
It is in this area, where vote wins have being as close as less than 1400 votes, that NZ First has built up haven of followers. Its a seat that Peters will attempt to win so he can once more play the role of king maker.
Peters is hoping to recruit those that once backed National, but cannot quite bring themselves to ever vote Labour, let alone Green.
Reactionary white old farmers and small business people, and East Coast retirees, in denial about Ihumatao like stolen land they are located on. It also includes older Maori voters, those with conservative fundamentalist christian values and paradoxically lower socio-economic voters. Those drawn to the right wing, or new age American/Canadian born brand of sovereignty. A brand which first emerged at Waitangi treaty ground gathering around five years ago after being introduced by Haiwai indigenous sovereignty groups (with Headhunter gang connections), before later emerging at the fringe of radical Ihumatao style activism. Its a style of sovereignty populism that seek to be in competition with the more localised and ‘less bat shit crazy’ ideas on Commonwealth constitutional law. Those issue of law wrapped up in historical Treaty legitimacy debates.
For all these reasons the Māori seat of Te Tai Tokerau specifically works against poorer Northland Māori. Its even being argued that if these electoral seats were all on a general roll, Northland would likely have dumped National (and right wing leaning politics) years ago. It is here with the help of NZPP ‘bible belt’ voters that NZ First may just steal enough votes from National, Labour and Mana, to allow NZ First to steal an unexpected electoral march.
Its not the first time Peters has defied the expected odds.
Winston 2020 guerrilla campaign around the country seems based not so much of winning votes but using minor parties, such as NZPP and Advance, to lose his rival votes in tight competitive electorates seats. A move designed to push NZ First from third to first.
This is no accident. Peter’s 2020 strategist are Arron Banks and Andy Wigmore who gained fame polarising Britain’s political landscape using populist divide and conquer tactics that earned them the name ‘The Bad Boys of Brexit’. Now their controversial, un-PC, populist style is here in New Zealand. It will form a vital part of Winston Peters’, seemingly unrealistic, campaign goals to get his party vote to lead position by causing “mayhem and mischief” in these tight electoral seats.
NZPP A MARRIAGE OF INCONVENIENCE??
The relation between NZPP and NZ First is closer than many may realise.
New Zealand First’s leader Winston Peters came to Ross’s defence in 2019 after the then National MP admitted having an affair with two women, one a National MP. Peters lashed out saying that bringing up the marital status of Jami-Lee Ross was a “viscous” tactic that showed the National Party had no substantive defence against Ross’ bombshell allegations visa illicit donations. His dis-tractors called the self incriminating revelation an act of unstable narcissistic revenge. One which, according to this version of events, saw him temporarily detained under the mental health act.
NZ First then accepted Ross proxy vote confirming the move in a statement, saying: “New Zealand First received a letter from Jami-Lee Ross on 3 November, asking the party to hold his proxy vote.
Both NZ First Foundation and Ross are currently under Serious Fraud Investigation for dubious donations allegations.
The investigation of NZ First Foundation followed revelations the foundation received donations from entities connected with some of the country’s wealthiest people in the business, fisheries and horse racing worlds. Ross is under investigation in relation to Chinese donations made to National. National Party’s former chief whip, Ross a man engaged in multiple affairs, has cast himself as a hero who was ethically bound to blow the whistle on these dodgy donations for the good of the nation.
NZPP Billy Te Kahika, said to be a close friend of Shane Jones, is managing director of Indigenous Business Consultants (2017 – Present) its LinkedIn profile states “Expert Māori Member of the Oceania Silk Road Network China NZ Business Platform – Roving advisor to Assembly of First Nations Canada International Indigenous Trade Round Table – Advisor to International Financial Consortium wanting to engage business in New Zealand and the South Pacific”. Like Ross Billy Te Kahika is chasing the populist vote and he has since distanced himself from both his pro China Road Belt and UN Agenda 2030 related employment and his previous gushing public statements regarding both China’s Belt Road and the controversial Agenda 2030.
Both however are listed on his LinkedIn profile as current employment status.
The accusation of dubious donations has also plagued Canada where Xiao Hua Gong a financial investor attended fundraisers for Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The same politician who Billy on his Canadian Chinese Belt Road indigenous people’s related missions can also be seen posing with (photo left of text). In December Gong (below left of frame with Trudea at a fund raiser) laundered nearly $70 million in New Zealand bank accounts after he was arrested in Canada and charged with fraud and money laundering. Charges were laid in connection to an alleged pyramid scheme involving the “fraudulent sale of hundreds of millions of dollars”. Money laundered through banks, real estate firms and various financial consortium, in places like Canada, the Pacific and New Zealand.
PORK BARRELS & JOB CUTS.
Another means Peters may claw his way back in is via the fragile future of job producing factories such as Tiwi in Southland and Marsden in Whangerei.
This June Stuff ran the headline ‘Ending refining at Marsden Point could impact 3500 jobs, says union’ it went on to report “The mood at the refinery in the wake of the company’s update on its strategic review was not very good. Everyone is on a bit of a downer now with the company pretty much focusing on a low cost model. Together with a jobs reduction at the close-by Carter Holt Harvey LVL plant these actions will have a big impact on the local Bream Bay economy”. It will of course also impact the general election.
Act Party leader David Semour has stated” Refining NZ, First Union, and the Northland Chamber of Commerce know that Northland is a contested electoral seat. They’re trying to take advantage of Shane Jones, taxpayer be damned. They know that a taxpayer-funded subsidy to keep an uncompetitive refinery open would be a classic move for New Zealand First.”
Political pundits remain divided on Jones’ chances of toppling National Mat King’s this election. Some point to the very slender majority of 1389 King secured in 2015, Northlanders’ track record of strategic voting and the cash which has been raining on to Northland courtesy of NZ First ‘Provincial Growth Fund. Others say NZ First’s 2015 win was a one-off in unique circumstances, and that Jones’ style puts off as many voters as he wins over.
The consensus is either way Northland could decide the future of NZ First and hence the results of this general election.
And that’s where NZPP comes into play. NZ First does not actually have to win votes, polls aside, to win Te Tai Tokerau. They simply have to make sure their rivals lose votes to close the distance.
Jamie Lee Ross, Billy Te Kahika and the NZPP’s brand of toad kissing Trumpish right wing politics may be just the polarising vehicle Winston needs. Advance of course wont get anywhere near winning the seat of course but they do make a great shield for NZ First to use as Peters deploys Brexit style tactics to secure victory.
A strategy based on dividing and conquering as the old grey fox uses the guerrilla tactics, to create “mayhem and mischief”, that Peter’s UK strategists Arron Banks and Andy Wigmore just happen to specialise in.